Poll Results - How Likely Is A Second Civil War?

I asked my followers if they think we'll see another Civil War in the United States.

On Friday, I shared a poll on Threads and Instagram asking my followers “How likely do you think a second American Civil War is?” The options to vote were:

Not Gunna Happen

Within the Next Decade

Within the Next Five Years

We’re Already in One

That last option felt a bit extreme when I made the poll. But apparently, not to my followers. Here are the results:

Now its important to note that I’m by no means a professional pollster. In total, a little over 1,000 people responded to this poll. My audience is primarily left leaning, 60% male, and average ages of 18 - 45. This result reflects sentiment amongst my following more than America at large.

But luckily for me, professionals have already been asking Americans this question. Marist Poll found in 2024 that nearly half of Americans believe a civil war likely. In 2022, YouGov ran a poll asking Americans whether they think a civil war is likely in the next 5 years and their thoughts on rising political division.

Given these previous results, I expected my followers to have a similar lean. Yet those voting “Not Gunna Happen” ended up in the minority. More surprising, “We’re Already In One” came out on top.

If I had to guess the reason for this result, I’d place my money on the situation in Los Angeles, where National Guard troops are still on the ground aiding ICE raids. That, and the frequency of which Trump expresses eagerness to deploy the military to stamp our protests is alarming. It's a situation ripe to boil over into violent conflict.

But it hasn’t yet.

I don’t believe we’re already in a second Civil War — but I also think we’re more at risk of one than ever. In her book How Civil Wars Start, Barbara F. Walter details how civil conflicts have sprung up in modern history. As a political scientist, she’s made her career studying civil wars. In her book, she shares a scale of risk factors indicating how close a nation is to descending into conflict. Already in 2022, the U.S. was in the danger zone. If you haven’t read her book yet, I highly recommend picking it up the next time you visit your local bookstore.

The take away here shouldn’t be about Civil War at all — but how divided Americans have become. We do not trust those on the other side of the political aisle. We assume they’re enemies hellbent on destroying America. A lot of us have lost sight of the big picture: building a better future for everyone.

I don’t have some easy answer for bridging the division, but unless we do, a second Civil War feels inevitable.

Anyway, on that super cheery note, do you want to take part in future polls? Make sure you’re following me on Threads and Instagram. Hate Meta? No worries — I’ll be giving the run down on results here.